Reality check for Gulf markets after week of turbulence
10 October 2008
With slumping equity markets, liquidity injections, a bleaker outlook for domestic banks and oil prices heading southwards, there are signs that the global financial crisis is beginning to infect the GCC. Does this mean the frenzied recruitment so far this year could go off the boil?
Equity markets in Dubai, Doha and Saudi Arabia all took a battering this week, while Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund injected cash into the local bourse in an attempt shore up the sagging stock market. This follows the recent UAE central bank's $14bn injection of liquidity into the domestic money market.
After a turbulent week, Dubai’s prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, said on Thursday that the UAE markets were “sound” and “doing well”.
Anne Marie Browne, foreign institutional sales manager at Al-Futtaim HC Securities, says: “UAE markets are increasingly correlated to global markets and as such the impact of ongoing financial turmoil in worldwide markets has been felt heavily throughout the region.”
The ongoing equity slump will hit local banks’ performance, according to ratings agency Fitch. “The impact will partly be seen in third-quarter results, due out soon, although the worst of the market crash occurred in October,” said Robert Thursfield, director, financial institutions at Fitch.
To make matters worse, oil prices this week dropped to $82 a barrel – the lowest level for a year. But the UAE government insists the economy will remain in “good shape” even if prices shrink to $60 a barrel.
But how has this affected recruitment in the region, which has been a hive of activity over the last couple of years?
Malcolm Wood, head of front-office roles at search firm Hamilton Chase, tells us: “Firms are taking longer to sign off roles and a number of positions are being put on hold. There’s greater scrutiny over whether certain roles are really needed now, and the competition for candidates isn’t quite as intense, so firms can be more selective.”
Bill Allum, managing director of search firm Napier Scott, thinks the region still offers more opportunities than other markets.
“The global situation is likely to affect recruitment in the region, but there are institutions in the GCC that are in a much better position than a lot of the Western financial firms and they still view this as an opportunity to hire,” he says.
Allum adds: “However, it’s likely that there will be some casualties in the region and obviously those companies will be less likely to take people on.”
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How comparable are different countries within GCC from the recruitment stand point. If UAE is cooling down, does that mean that Bahrain, Qatar and SA will also be slow?
Ali Hatim 10 Oct 2008
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